Apr 8, 2005 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) --
SIE:
Downgrade to Neutral Weight - We are downgrading Sierra Health Services
based on valuation, which we believe properly reflects its earnings
outlook. Leveraging its dominant local market share, Sierra should
continue to deliver solid earnings growth. To meet earnings growth
expectations (15% ), Sierra will likely need to pursue in State and out
of State opportunities, which may incrementally raise its risk profile.
CELG: Reit Overweight - Data from two Phase III multiple myeloma
trials of Revlimid will be presented at the 10th International Myeloma
Workshop on Tuesday (Monday night in the U.S) morning in Sydney,
Australia.
MO: Reit Overweight - It has been 149 days since
oral arguments were heard in the Price/Miles lights class action
against Philip Morris USA in Illinois, and hardly a day goes by that we
don't get a question regarding our expectation of the timing of an
opinion release by the Illinois Supreme Court.
STZ: Riet
Neutral Weight - Full year earnings guidance raised from $3.05-$3.20
per share to $3.09-$3.21 per share, which is probably too low seeing
$0.03 already added to base from upside surprise.
ACN: Reit
Overweight - ACN reported F2Q05 net revenues of $3.8 billion ($124M
ahead of our expectations) and EPS of $0.32 (in-line with consensus and
a penny below our estimate). ACN's consulting business continues to
outperform expectations, but an underperforming outsourcing contract is
weighing down margins.
WGO: Reit Overweight - Dealer inventory
levels are expected to normalize by the beginning of June. Last
quarter's miss was due to excess inventory at the dealer level - retail
demand had remained flat to slightly above last year. Providing that
retail demand remains flat, it is expected that excess inventories will
be worked off by the end of May / beginning of June.
AA: Reit
Overweight - We estimate full operation of the 91,380 tonne quarterly
capacity of the three restarted smelter units contributes about $0.06
per share per quarter. We are disappointed at the 47.1% 1Q and 74% 2Q
forecasted output rates, and worry that Alcoa encounters "Le
Resistance" in Quebec after the strike.
X: Reit Underweight -
The productivity of the Gary #13 blast furnace last relined in 1991 had
fallen to 7,045 tons per day of iron prior to its scheduled August 1,
2005 rebuild planned at a $260 million capital outlay excluding the
earnings penalty from lost output during the roughly 90 day reline.
CMCSA:
Reit Overweight - Excluding working capital, free cash flow for 2004
was $1.9 bil., significantly higher than the $74 mil. achieved in the
previous year. The improvement resulted mostly from a 18% improvement
in OIBDA, a 12% reduction in capex and a 16% reduction in cash
interest.
DELL: Reit Overweight - Management reiterated its
goal to grow revenue to $80 billion, with the largest opportunities in
nondesktop PC products and overseas markets.
DRI: Reit Neutral
Weight - Darden reported March same-store sales that were ahead of our
expectations. The strength came mostly from Olive Garden, which posted
a 9%-10% increase. We were looking for a 5.0% increase. While difficult
comparisons still loom throughout the year, Olive Garden appears to be
up for the challenge.
HMC: Reit Overweight - Japanese yen,
incentives, and N. American mix better than anticipated. Bumping up our
4Q05 EPS by 8 to 109.
PFE: Reit Neutral Weight - Bextra's
market withdrawal was a surprise, both to us and the company
apparently. PFE may have to reissue earnings guidance just given on
Monday that, among other things, called for renewed coxib growth.
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