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Prudential Equity Group, LLCBack

via COMTEX

Apr 8, 2005 11:19:00 AM

Apr 8, 2005 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) --

SIE: Downgrade to Neutral Weight - We are downgrading Sierra Health Services based on valuation, which we believe properly reflects its earnings outlook. Leveraging its dominant local market share, Sierra should continue to deliver solid earnings growth. To meet earnings growth expectations (15% ), Sierra will likely need to pursue in State and out of State opportunities, which may incrementally raise its risk profile.

CELG: Reit Overweight - Data from two Phase III multiple myeloma trials of Revlimid will be presented at the 10th International Myeloma Workshop on Tuesday (Monday night in the U.S) morning in Sydney, Australia.

MO: Reit Overweight - It has been 149 days since oral arguments were heard in the Price/Miles lights class action against Philip Morris USA in Illinois, and hardly a day goes by that we don't get a question regarding our expectation of the timing of an opinion release by the Illinois Supreme Court.

STZ: Riet Neutral Weight - Full year earnings guidance raised from $3.05-$3.20 per share to $3.09-$3.21 per share, which is probably too low seeing $0.03 already added to base from upside surprise.

ACN: Reit Overweight - ACN reported F2Q05 net revenues of $3.8 billion ($124M ahead of our expectations) and EPS of $0.32 (in-line with consensus and a penny below our estimate). ACN's consulting business continues to outperform expectations, but an underperforming outsourcing contract is weighing down margins.

WGO: Reit Overweight - Dealer inventory levels are expected to normalize by the beginning of June. Last quarter's miss was due to excess inventory at the dealer level - retail demand had remained flat to slightly above last year. Providing that retail demand remains flat, it is expected that excess inventories will be worked off by the end of May / beginning of June.

AA: Reit Overweight - We estimate full operation of the 91,380 tonne quarterly capacity of the three restarted smelter units contributes about $0.06 per share per quarter. We are disappointed at the 47.1% 1Q and 74% 2Q forecasted output rates, and worry that Alcoa encounters "Le Resistance" in Quebec after the strike.

X: Reit Underweight - The productivity of the Gary #13 blast furnace last relined in 1991 had fallen to 7,045 tons per day of iron prior to its scheduled August 1, 2005 rebuild planned at a $260 million capital outlay excluding the earnings penalty from lost output during the roughly 90 day reline.

CMCSA: Reit Overweight - Excluding working capital, free cash flow for 2004 was $1.9 bil., significantly higher than the $74 mil. achieved in the previous year. The improvement resulted mostly from a 18% improvement in OIBDA, a 12% reduction in capex and a 16% reduction in cash interest.

DELL: Reit Overweight - Management reiterated its goal to grow revenue to $80 billion, with the largest opportunities in nondesktop PC products and overseas markets.

DRI: Reit Neutral Weight - Darden reported March same-store sales that were ahead of our expectations. The strength came mostly from Olive Garden, which posted a 9%-10% increase. We were looking for a 5.0% increase. While difficult comparisons still loom throughout the year, Olive Garden appears to be up for the challenge.

HMC: Reit Overweight - Japanese yen, incentives, and N. American mix better than anticipated. Bumping up our 4Q05 EPS by 8 to 109.

PFE: Reit Neutral Weight - Bextra's market withdrawal was a surprise, both to us and the company apparently. PFE may have to reissue earnings guidance just given on Monday that, among other things, called for renewed coxib growth.

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